German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticized US-Iran talks, and the Polymarket contract for a permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026, has collapsed to 1.8% YES.

Merz’s remarks target US-Iran peace negotiations amid European frustration over disrupted energy markets. The April 30 odds are near dead, down from 10% yesterday and 61% a week ago. The June 30 market still sits at 46.5% YES, which means traders price in a real chance of a deal after the immediate deadline passes.

The April 30 sub-market saw a 6-point spike at 11:14 AM that quickly corrected. Daily volume is $275,178 in USDC, and it takes $27,667 to move the price 5 points, which points to a liquid order book.

The 28-point gap in odds between the April 30 and May 31 contracts tells you where traders think a breakthrough is most likely. At 1.8¢, a YES share on an April 30 deal pays $1 if resolved, a 55x return, but that requires a dramatic shift within six days while a major European ally is publicly criticizing the process.

Watch for announcements from Trump or the White House about renewed talks or a new negotiation venue. Either could move these contracts fast.

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