SpaceX stock is attempting to stabilize near $110 ahead of its first post-IPO earnings report, but a $100 billion share unlock could limit any recovery.

SpaceX will report its second-quarter results after the US market closes on Aug. 4, giving investors their first detailed look at the company since its June initial public offering.

The report arrives at a difficult point for SPCX stock. Shares recently traded at $110.41, down about 18% from their $135 IPO price and roughly 52% below the June intraday high of $225.64.

That decline has reduced some of the valuation premium created by the IPO’s limited float. However, the company is still valued at roughly 35 to 37 times projected 2026 revenue, leaving little room for weak results or cautious guidance.

SpaceX earnings face unusually high expectations

Wall Street expects SpaceX to report approximately $6.88 billion in second-quarter revenue, according to FactSet data. Analysts forecast a loss of $0.23 per share and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of about $2.1 billion.

Full-year expectations stand near $39 billion in revenue and $17.3 billion in EBITDA.

These estimates place considerable pressure on SpaceX’s three main businesses: Starlink, rocket launches and artificial intelligence. Investors will assess whether revenue growth from Starlink and launch contracts can support the company’s spending on Starship, satellites and AI infrastructure.

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Colin Canfield has warned that the first report could contain an “extreme expectation bias,” reflecting the potential gap between Wall Street forecasts and SpaceX’s actual performance.

Starlink is likely to receive the most attention because its recurring subscription revenue could help offset the more volatile economics of rocket development. Analysts expect the connectivity segment to remain SpaceX’s largest revenue source, supported by more than 10 million users.

The launch business also enters earnings with a substantial order pipeline. SpaceX recently secured a $1.6 billion US Space Force contract covering 18 Falcon 9 launches through 2027, adding visibility to its government-related revenue.

AI presents a less certain outlook. Investors will want details on spending, revenue and expected returns following SpaceX’s expansion into AI infrastructure. High capital expenditure without a clear path to positive free cash flow could renew concerns about the company’s valuation.

SPCX stock shows early signs of stabilization

The 4-hour chart shows SPCX stock moving out of a descending channel that guided prices lower throughout July. Shares recently rebounded from an intraday low of $104.85 and reached $112.70 before settling near $110.41.

That breakout suggests the decline may be losing momentum. However, it does not yet confirm a wider trend reversal because the stock remains close to its record low and well below several former support levels.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has produced an early bullish crossover. The MACD line stood at minus 6.99, above its signal line at minus 7.80, while the histogram turned positive at 0.81.

Because both lines remain below zero, the signal points to improving short-term momentum rather than an established bullish trend.

The Average Directional Index stood at 32.82. An ADX reading above 25 normally indicates a relatively strong trend, but the indicator does not determine its direction. In this case, it primarily confirms the strength of the decline that preceded the latest stabilization attempt.

A strong earnings report could provide the catalyst needed to validate the channel breakout. Weak results, however, could turn the move into a temporary pause within the larger downtrend.

SPCX needs to reclaim $120 to extend its recovery

Immediate resistance sits between $112.70 and $115, an area that has repeatedly limited rebounds since late July. A 4-hour close above that zone could allow SPCX to test $120.

The $120 level previously acted as short-term support before the latest breakdown. Reclaiming it would improve the technical structure and could expose the stock to resistance between $127 and $130, near the upper boundary of the former descending channel.

A move above $130 would offer stronger evidence that SPCX has formed a short-term bottom. The next major resistance area would then sit between $140 and $150, where sellers controlled several July rebounds.

On the downside, $104.85 is the first support level. A break below that intraday low would place the psychological $100 mark at risk.

Falling below $100 after earnings would invalidate the latest channel breakout and leave SPCX without a clear historical support level because the stock has traded publicly for less than two months. That lack of price history could increase volatility as investors search for a new valuation floor.

The Aug. 6 unlock could limit an earnings rally

Even an earnings beat may not remove the stock’s most immediate supply risk.

Up to 911.5 million shares held by employees and some early investors become eligible for sale on Aug. 6, the second trading day after the earnings release. At $110.41 per share, the tranche is worth about $100.6 billion.

The release exceeds the approximately 639 million shares initially available for public trading. If every eligible share entered the market, the tradable supply would rise to roughly 1.55 billion shares. Eligibility does not mean holders must sell, but the size of the tranche creates the potential for considerable selling pressure.

A second tranche of 455.8 million shares could have qualified for early release if SPCX closed at or above $175.50 on at least five of the 10 trading days through earnings. The stock’s decline means that condition will not be met.

SpaceX’s staggered lock-up structure will release additional shares over the coming months. By Dec. 8, the number of potentially tradable shares could reach approximately 5.33 billion, compared with fewer than 640 million following the IPO. Elon Musk’s holdings remain subject to a longer restriction extending into mid-2027.

Can SpaceX earnings revive SPCX stock?

The bullish scenario requires SpaceX to beat revenue expectations, demonstrate strong Starlink margins and give investors a credible plan for funding AI and Starship investments. Those results could push SPCX through $115 and toward $120 or $130.

The bearish case centers on continued losses, elevated capital spending and weak guidance. Those concerns would become more damaging when combined with the Aug. 6 unlock, particularly if employees and early investors use the earnings window to sell.

SPCX’s improving MACD and channel breakout provide an early technical basis for a rebound. Still, the stock must reclaim $120 before the move can be treated as more than a relief rally.

Earnings could revive SPCX in the short term, but holding those gains may prove harder. The company must satisfy high operating expectations just two days before its available share supply begins to expand.