Is being too bullish actually good for the crypto market?
Bitcoin’s recovery since the summer lows has been accompanied by an unusually sharp shift in analyst sentiment, and CryptoQuant believes the pattern closely resembles the early stages of the previous major bull cycle.
In its latest report shared with CryptoPotato, the company found that sentiment across BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, and SOL has shifted from bearish to bullish since early July. More importantly, CQ said the move has been “deeper, faster, and broader” than the turn witnessed between late 2022 and early 2023.
Analysts Turn Bullish
CryptoQuant’s 30-day Analyst Consensus Index bottomed at -18.3 on July 2, when BTC’s price had tumbled to under $58,000, and climbed above 0 on July 27, when the cryptocurrency was still trading around $63,800. This dramatic increase came just a few weeks before bitcoin skyrocketed toward $80,000 in late August.
The index now stands at +49.2, while the share of bullish analysts going viral has rocketed from under 40% to almost 85%. CQ said this represented 137 of 164 voters. The shift also appears to be more than an influx of new bullish commentators, as 47 analysts flipped from bearish to bullish among 85 who held a BTC call both at the start of July and now. In contrast, only five have moved in the opposite direction.
CQ’s report compared the current environment with the beginning of the previous major cycle. In 2022-2023, BTC’s consensus index rose by 36 points over 103 days while the asset gained roughly 65%. The difference is quite striking, as sentiment has soared by 67 points over the same period this time, even though the cryptocurrency rallied by a more modest 33 points from the July low.
Consequently, CryptoQuant concluded that analysts have moved further ahead of BTC’s price than they did at the start of the 2023 bull market. This is not an isolated development, as large bitcoin holders recently began reaccumulating sizeable portions of the asset after months of selling. At the same time, CQ’s Bull Score Index jumped from 20 in July to as high as 90 in September.
ETH and SOL See Bigger Bulls
Ethereum’s consensus index has climbed from +0.1 to +58.3, with 88% of analysts turning bullish. Solana has the strongest reading of the five examined assets at +72, with 31 out of 34 analysts (91%) betting on the bulls.
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This also shows a substantial departure from the previous cycle, as ETH and SOL lagged BTC’s sentiment recovery in 2022-2023, whereas this time they have led.
XRP has gone a ramatic reversal as well, with its consensus falling to -8.0 on August 20, which coincided with its multi-year low at $0.99. The index rebounded to 36.7% within weeks as analysts turned bullish after the token’s price rocketed to over $1.50 at the time.
