Odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 have crashed to 1.1% YES on Polymarket, down from 7% yesterday and 68% a week ago, as negotiations appear to have broken down with six days left.

Market reaction

The Crude Oil All Time High by April 30 market sits at 0.6% YES, down from 2% yesterday. Stalled talks raise the possibility of supply disruptions, but traders clearly don’t expect oil to hit record levels before month’s end.

The nuclear deal market has $7,699 in actual USDC traded, showing real trader commitment. But it only takes $1,550 to swing the odds 5 points, which means the order book is thin. A 4-point spike to 12% yesterday reversed quickly, with traders fast to sell back into pessimism.

Why it matters

For crude oil, $695 moves the market 5 points. Face value of trades reads $100,828, but actual USDC volume is just $2,513. That gap means even small news events can cause outsized price swings with little real money behind them.

The collapse from 68% to 1.1% in a single week isn’t gradual repricing. It reflects a near-total loss of confidence that any agreement is reachable before the deadline. A YES share at 1¢ pays $1 if a deal materializes, a 100x return, but six days with no visible progress makes that extremely unlikely.

What to watch

Statements from Trump or Iranian leadership are the main catalyst. A new round of talks or public concessions from either side could move odds quickly given how thin the order books are. Energy infrastructure disruptions would also feed into crude oil price expectations.

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