Susan Collins, president of the Boston Federal Reserve, used a May 7 appearance on Bloomberg’s “Big Take” podcast to deliver a message crypto investors probably didn’t want to hear: interest rates aren’t going anywhere.

Collins pointed to energy shocks stemming from the Iran conflict as a major force keeping inflation stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. Her prescription was blunt. Hold rates steady. No cuts on the horizon.

The inflation problem that won’t quit

Collins warned that the Iran conflict-induced disruptions could triple inflation estimates compared to just 30 days ago.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell flagged similar inflation risks tied to the Iran conflict in posts on X dated April 21 and May 8, reinforcing the broader Fed narrative that caution, not accommodation, is the order of the day.

What this means for Bitcoin and crypto

Bitcoin climbed 2.6% to $80,139 on May 4 as markets began pricing in stagflation risks from extended supply disruptions.

Analysts are now predicting a possible 25-30% drop in BTC if inflation continues to escalate. That would put Bitcoin somewhere in the low $56K to $60K range from current levels. During the 2022 tightening cycle, BTC fell from $69K to below $16K as the Fed marched rates higher.

The US Treasury seized $500 million in crypto assets linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in early May as part of intensified sanctions. That seizure contributed to a 60-70% devaluation of Iran’s currency.

Global markets holding up, but for how long

Collins acknowledged that despite these pressures, global markets have shown resilience. Strong corporate earnings and continued momentum in AI technology are providing a floor under equities. Analysts suggest that AI-driven segments within the crypto market may experience distinct advantages despite macroeconomic pressures, while Bitcoin and other major tokens face the gravity of higher-for-longer rates.