CoinGecko data revealed that Bitcoin outperformed on US holidays during 11 of the past 14 calendar years analyzed historically.
A new study by CoinGecko found that buying Bitcoin on US holidays has historically delivered much stronger short-term returns compared to regular trading days.
The analysis examined Bitcoin’s forward returns across different calendar days between May 1, 2013, and May 8, 2026, focusing on single-day gains after purchase.
BTC’s Strongest Next-Day Rallies
According to the data, US holidays recorded an average next-day Bitcoin return of 0.77%, compared to just 0.19% on non-holidays. CoinGecko found that holidays outperformed regular days in 11 of the 14 calendar years included in the study. Among regular weekdays, Mondays and Wednesdays posted the highest average next-day return at 0.38%, while Thursdays were the only day to produce a negative average return of 0.09%.
The report identified New Year’s Day as the strongest-performing holiday for Bitcoin purchases, with an average next-day return of 2.01% across 13 observations and a win rate of 84.6%, meaning Bitcoin rose the following day in 11 out of 13 years. Columbus Day posted the same 84.6% win rate alongside an average return of 1.70%, while Christmas generated a 1.46% average next-day gain with a 53.8% win rate.
CoinGecko said the New Year’s Day pattern may indicate the broader January momentum effect often seen in traditional financial markets, where investors deploy fresh capital at the start of a new year. The study added that Bitcoin may also benefit from a shift away from December tax-loss selling into renewed January positioning. The report noted that Bitcoin’s price on January 1 ranged from $313 in 2015 to $93,507 in 2025, yet the pattern of next-day gains remained relatively consistent throughout the period.
However, not all holidays produced positive results. Martin Luther King Jr. Day recorded the weakest performance with an average next-day negative return of 0.84%, largely influenced by Bitcoin’s 18.65% drop following January 15, 2018, during the early phase of the crypto bear market. Independence Day also averaged a negative return at 0.26%. Veterans Day showed an average gain of 1.75%, but CoinGecko warned that the figure was distorted by a few unusually large rallies, while the holiday’s win rate remained below 50%.
The study also found little meaningful difference in Bitcoin performance between weekdays and weekends. Weekdays averaged a 0.21% positive next-day return compared to 0.22% on weekends, which CoinGecko described as statistically insignificant due to Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading structure.
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Over a one-year holding period, the day of purchase had almost no impact on long-term returns, as average annual gains across all weekdays remained within a narrow 2.4 percentage point range. CoinGecko added that while holiday purchases also showed slightly stronger one-year returns, the effect was likely indicative of broader market cycles rather than a continued holiday-driven trend.
Multiple Pressures Hit Bitcoin
As for Bitcoin’s latest price action, the asset is currently trading back above $80,000 after briefly slipping below that level earlier this week. Market experts said the decline was driven by several pressures hitting the market at once. On-chain data showed that Bitcoin exchange outflows had dropped sharply before the selloff, leaving more coins on trading platforms and increasing available sell-side supply.
At the same time, derivatives traders were aggressively building short positions while leveraged long exposure remained high. Once prices started falling, a wave of long liquidations accelerated the move downward. Rising inflation concerns following fresh US CPI and PPI data, alongside heavy whale selling, added further pressure to the market.
